I feel like, as a gamer myself, gamers are quite intelligent people, when we’re not teabagging our enemies in FPS games, burning down our mates houses for laughs in Minecraft or one of the many other things people do to troll in games. But one thing that has truly come a LONG way over the years, is how accurate sports games are. Not only in terms of how the game is played and how realistic they have become, but in terms of how accurately players and teams are assessed on their ability.
Which got me thinking, could you use games like Madden 23 or their counterparts in other sports like Football Manager for soccer to predict which teams will do well against each other, which players are good match ups etc. So could teams like the Bears use this information to help them pick their best team for a given situation OR could you use this information to pick which players will be best for your fantasy football teams for each particular game week? OR could it help you pick who is going to win when it comes to sportsbooks?
It’s no secret that teams already pay top dollar for statisticians, analysts, sports scientists, nutritionists etc. to get the most out of their players as well as to check out the opposition to make sure they know exactly what they’re coming up against, but, the same can also be said for EA Sports and their development studios. In the current gaming climate, developers are trying to push for the most realistic game imaginable. Part of that is hiring statisticians and analysts, similar to sports franchises.
What would be the point in having a game that PLAYS well if it isn’t accurate for the players? Imagine putting Cristiano Ronaldo in your FIFA lineup only for him to play like a beer league player? Statisticians and analysts play a very important part in helping create a realistic game. So what happens next then? Well, you’ve got the game engine constantly improving for a more realistic experience, the statisticians are doing their job and making the players as close to real life performance statistics as possible as well as AI continuously improving, so back to the title, could you use Madden to predict the Bears fantasy season?
Theoretically, yes. Running games under a simulation you could arguably narrow it down to the more likely outcome. Let’s use sportsbooks as an example here and betting on football. So, on Sunday, 11th September, the Chicago Bears take on the San Francisco 49ers. Currently. When we take a look at BetMGM Illinois sportsbook odds against San Francisco, the Bears are +7 underdogs with the 49ers being -7 favorites, so theoretically if we run a simulation on this game, the Bears should be consistently getting beat and coincidentally, that’s exactly what the outcome is (On Madden 22, I don’t have 23 yet!).
The real question would be how do closer matchups go with simulations? Let’s take the season opening fixture as an example of this, if we adjust rosters to account for current potential lineups and injuries etc. We have the LA Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills kicking us off for the 22-23 season. This will be a close game given that both of these teams had a SOLID regular season AND the Rams are defending Super Bowl champions. So, the sportsbooks are putting rams as the underdogs coming into this, however it is very close. You’d get +2.5 on the Rams, while the Bills are out ahead at -2.5. How does the simulation go though?
I ran 50 simulations of this game on Madden 22, 10 wasn’t conclusive enough! Rosters adjusted, any injured players left out, at the SoFi Stadium also which, home field advantage is a real thing. Bear in mind this is BEFORE the Rams won the Super Bowl so they haven’t received the obligatory stat boost that comes along with that and honestly, it was as close as you’d expect. The Rams took it 28-22, very close and to be fair, reflects those odds quite well.
So my silly little experiment I had running on Madden 22 serves to reason that, with the right people deciding the stats for the players, the right people developing the game, moving toward the direction of realism. You could argue that pushing funding into the right areas could help make this a really valuable tool for us fantasy football players and gamblers as well as the big wigs at the top sports franchises.
Technology has been used for sports teams for many years, even technology as basic as just watching back tapes of other teams performances. But now, we have things like trackers that players wear so you can monitor their heart rate, how far they run during a game or in training, top speed and average speed. From companies like STATSports and many of their competitors It’s stuff like this that allows these statisticians and analysts to be so accurate with their reading of a players ability
Anyway, given how fast technology progresses, meaning we can now record stats much easier and much quicker, how soon is it before we ARE able to consistently use things like Madden to predict games or help us efficiently pick a fantasy team or truly assist in putting your money on your favourite sports? Of course there are ALWAYS going to be other factors that go into a sporting event so it will never be 100% accurate, but even 75% or more accuracy would be absolutely game changing for punters and professionals alike!
It’s no secret that some football teams in the UK use the Football Manager player database to help scout for players. So I feel like it’s only a matter of time before more teams in more sports use video games to help prepare for upcoming games, being able to put a play into practice and visualise it clearly is an important tool. What do you think? Do you agree that more teams WILL be using video games in the future? Or am I absolutely losing my mind and video games could never reach that kind of usefulness in professional sport? Let us know!
TL;DR
Theoretically, yes, you can use Madden NFL 23 to predict Fantasy Football or betting results and over time it will only get more accurate.